The hottest manganese silicon strengthens its own

Manganese and manganese: strengthen the improvement of its fundamentals to meet the start-up of the demand side in the future

at present, in view of the cost pressure of silicon and manganese plants, the power of reducing production of silicon and manganese plants in high-cost areas is gradually released, and the contraction expectation of the supply side is clear. Before the demand of the downstream terminal steel market has not started, some silicon manganese factories are still unable to digest the seasonal high inventory to boost the current expectations of the strength of the spot market. Manganese ore at the raw material end will push up the cost of silicomanganese, and the conduction is not smooth, as well as the high inventory pressure at the port is not relieved, which will inhibit the continuous rise of manganese ore. At present, the improvement of the profits of the silicon manganese plant will still be based on the start-up of the demand side of the downstream steel plant. Before the profit of the steel plant fails to improve, the trend of steel bidding to suppress the price of silicon and manganese will not be significantly improved. It is difficult for the factory to expand upward because of the rebound in profits. Driven by the recent black sector rally, the expected contraction of power rationing supply, manganese ore rally and other positive factors, the disk rally sentiment is high, but in view of the fact that the spot failed to follow up, the disk rally is highly constrained by the selling and delivery costs

trading strategy

strategy driven: basic orientation is good for improvement + liquidity

based on the prediction of the expected improvement of basic orientation, the suppression effect of demand start-up and cost margin on the supply side will accelerate the improvement expectation of inventory

with the start of the downstream demand cycle in the later stage, try to enter the SM Set in batches. Buy sm1905, empty sm1909

fundamental assessment

supply and demand

cost pressure will lead to supply contraction in the later stage, and power rationing is expected to disturb the normal release of factory capacity. The growth of steel terminal demand is worth looking forward to, but we still need to wait for the arrival of the demand opening cycle. At the same time, it will boost the demand of steel mills for silicon and manganese raw materials

although the profits of factories in the main production areas in the North continued to decline, there were still meager profits. The initiative of the factory to stop production and reduce production is not high. However, under the pressure of high costs, the intensity of production reduction caused by loss marginal benefit in the southern market is continuously increasing. At the same time, in view of the overall cost pressure of the industry, the schedule of new capacity launch in the later stage will be expected to be delayed. According to the historical total steel inventory cycle data, the cumulative stock peak was on the left and right of the double screw rod series in early March. As the subsequent demand rises steadily, the high-point inventory will enter the de inventory cycle. From the recent research institutions of all parties, the conclusion is as follows: the overall commencement demand recovers from early March to around March 15. At the same time, with the loose overall capital environment, it will be more conducive to the rapid progress of infrastructure projects and expand the demand for upstream raw materials. There is still room for the overall growth of housing construction and infrastructure

inventory situation

seasonal cycle inventory high, waiting for downstream demand to start digestion

according to the communication with the factory, the silicon and manganese inventory of the factory has continued to accumulate before the holiday, and the accumulation stage is also mainly caused by workers' holidays, transportation and other problems. But in the face of inventory, moskona introduced her project: "Regardless of the financial pressure at the material level or the finished product level, the factory still chooses to actively ship. This also leads to the continuous weakening of silicon and manganese prices before the holiday. After the holiday, in the face of the reality that the downstream steel terminal demand has not started, the risk of high inventory still exists. As a result, it is still difficult to raise the spot price in the environment of extremely rising futures market area. At the same time, from the current delivery warehouse inventory in Tianjin, the inventory is still high. According to According to the interview, the delivery situation of 01 delivery goods is not ideal, and the inventory is basically unchanged. This is mainly due to the fact that with the continuous weakening of market prices, the majority of downstream purchases are wait-and-see, and the overall demand weakens. In addition, the high cost of the 01 receiving party also led to the weak willingness of the shipper to take the initiative to ship

in terms of raw materials,

the transmission of manganese ore's rising sentiment to the downstream silicon manganese plant is blocked. The high inventory in the port and the slow follow-up speed of downstream demand are still difficult to continue to raise the ore price

in March, mainstream miners in the outer market offered to China manganese ore, with month on month changes, rising and falling. The overall range of change is limited compared with the offer in February. Under the background that the profits of the silicon manganese plant continue to be compressed, the mine expectations are characterized by different mentality and wait-and-see. At the same time, we saw an increase of yuan/ton of Australian block and semi carbonate, the mainstream minerals in the port after the festival. According to the traders, although the offer rose too fast, the actual transaction was not as expected. The high inventory in the port is also difficult to form a favorable support for the continuous rise of manganese ore. As of the 22nd, the inventory of manganese ore in major ports across the country has reached 3million tons, at an all-time high

profit situation

the current silicon manganese industry as a whole is squeezed by the high cost of upstream manganese ore and the continuous pressure of downstream steel bidding, and the profit space is constantly compressed

according to the communication with the factory, the silicon manganese factory in the main production area in the north, which has the advantage of power cost, has a production profit of yuan/ton. Since there is no electricity, experiments and data processing can be carried out according to GB, ISO, JIS, ASTM, DIN and various specifications provided by users. Factories in this advantageous region have suffered losses. Under the background of the overall decline of the steel market in the early stage, the profits of steel mills were significantly compressed, and although they rebounded later, they were not as good as before. In particular, the recent continuous strengthening of the prices of major raw materials such as coke, iron ore and coking coal has also brought upward pressure of yuan/ton to the cost of steel, and the profit per ton of steel has been squeezed again. In this context, there is still a risk of weak decline in the bidding price of silicon manganese steel of mainstream steel mills in March. Thus, it is difficult to provide favorable conditions for the profit recovery of silicon manganese plants

basis trend

the rise of futures is still subject to the weak fundamentals of spot, and it is difficult for futures to break through the pattern of selling and delivery

in view of the current research and judgment on the above fundamentals of silicon and manganese, although the conditions for the silicon and manganese spot market to rise are still not mature, the cost margin is gradually strengthening compared with traditional materials, and the benefit support is also limited. During the rebound of black thread and iron ore futures before the festival, the main contract of silicon manganese 1905 rose, repairing the basis. However, restricted by the failure of the spot market to follow up, it still failed to effectively break through the first line of the selling and delivery cost of 7700 yuan/ton. At the same time, stimulated by the recent positive news of power rationing in Inner Mongolia, the positive news of the day was released, the intraday position increase was positive, and the overnight position was negative. It reflects the lack of interest in the continuous position of incremental funds. The rising height of futures is still limited by the safety margin of selling and delivery costs